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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
02/2057Z from Region 3664 (S18E52). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 May, 04 May, 05 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 477 km/s at 02/1802Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 02/1431Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 02/1354Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (03 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (04 May, 05 May). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (03 May, 04 May)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (05 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 May a 05 May
| Clase M | 65% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 May 142 Previsto 03 May-05 May 135/132/132 Media de 90 Días 02 May 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 May 010/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 May 024/045 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 May-05 May 023/040-013/015-011/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 May a 05 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 79% | 60% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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