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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 127 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X4 event observed at
06/0635Z from Region 3663 (N25W45). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08
May, 09 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 591 km/s at 06/1934Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 06/0550Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-12 nT at 05/2252Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 170 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (08 May, 09 May). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08
May, 09 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 May a 09 May
| Clase M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Clase X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 May 171 Previsto 07 May-09 May 170/175/175 Media de 90 Días 06 May 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 May 012/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 May 018/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 010/012-009/008-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 May a 09 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 75 -3.2 |
| Last 30 days | 57.2 -67.7 |