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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 133 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
12/1626Z from Region 3664 (S19W75). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high on
days one and two (13 May, 14 May) and expected to be low with a slight
chance for an M-class flare on day three (15 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1005 km/s at 12/0055Z. Total
IMF reached 15 nT at 11/2116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -7 nT at 11/2158Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 71 pfu at 11/2100Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 289 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (13 May), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (14 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (15 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are likely to cross
threshold on days one and two (13 May, 14 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 May a 15 May
| Clase M | 95% | 95% | 15% |
| Clase X | 75% | 75% | 05% |
| Protón | 60% | 60% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 May 222 Previsto 13 May-15 May 220/215/200 Media de 90 Días 12 May 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 May 175/ NA Estimado Afr/Ap 12 May 032/063 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May 023/040-014/018-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 May a 15 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
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