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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 134 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
13/0944Z from Region 3664 (S19W87). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (14 May) and expected to be
low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class
flare on days two and three (15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 891 km/s at 12/2242Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 12/2204Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 12/2151Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 58 pfu at 13/1850Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 754 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (15 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev are expected to cross
threshold on day one (14 May) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day two (15 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 May a 16 May
| Clase M | 80% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 40% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 99% | 25% | 05% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 May 215 Previsto 14 May-16 May 215/200/190 Media de 90 Días 13 May 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 May 031/054 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 May 028/038 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 018/026-015/020-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 May a 16 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 70% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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