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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 141 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
19/2159Z from Region 3685 (S13E29). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (21 May,
22 May) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (23 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 427 km/s at 20/0308Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 20/0041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
20/0228Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 512 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 May, 23 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (21 May, 22 May, 23 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 May a 23 May
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 May 200 Previsto 21 May-23 May 200/200/200 Media de 90 Días 20 May 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 May 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 May 015/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 May-23 May 014/016-006/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 May a 23 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 20/12/2025 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
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