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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Apr 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 114 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Apr 2024

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 23/0319Z from Region 3654 (S08E31). There are currently 15 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 23/0717Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/1738Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1803Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 809 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Apr), unsettled to active levels on day two (25 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (26 Apr). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Apr a 26 Apr
Clase M75%75%75%
Clase X20%20%20%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Apr 214
  Previsto   24 Apr-26 Apr 215/210/190
  Media de 90 Días        23 Apr 162

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Apr  Missing/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Apr  011/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr  010/010-016/020-015/018

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Apr a 26 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%35%35%
Tormenta Menor05%25%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor25%25%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%60%55%

All times in UTC

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