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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 152 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
31/1120Z from Region 3697 (S18E35). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02
Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 31/1819Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 31/0208Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 31/0349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (01 Jun), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (02 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (03
Jun). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and
three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 May 179 Previsto 01 Jun-03 Jun 185/185/185 Media de 90 Días 31 May 169
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 May 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 May 016/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 018/025-007/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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