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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 May 04 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 125 Publicado el 2200Z a las 04 May 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 03-2100Z hasta 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
04/0619Z from Region 3663 (N26W16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 May, 06
May, 07 May).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 03-2100Z a 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 420 km/s at 03/2319Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
04/2022Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
04/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 136 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 May), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (06 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (07 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (05 May, 06 May, 07 May).
III. Probabilidades del evento 05 May a 07 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 04 May 167 Previsto 05 May-07 May 170/175/180 Media de 90 Días 04 May 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 03 May 016/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 04 May 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 014/020-024/035-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 05 May a 07 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 40% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 79% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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