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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jun 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 161 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Jun 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
09/0701Z from Region 3697 (S19W86). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (10 Jun, 11 Jun)
and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight
chance for an X-class flare on day three (12 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 550 km/s at 08/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/1657Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
09/1219Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 128 pfu at 08/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 119 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Jun), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (10
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (11 Jun) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 50% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Protón | 75% | 25% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Jun 181 Previsto 10 Jun-12 Jun 175/170/170 Media de 90 Días 09 Jun 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Jun 015/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Jun 006/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 020/035-015/020-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Jun a 12 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 80% | 60% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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| Last 30 days | 119.6 +1.6 |