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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jun 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jun 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
13/1645Z from Region 3713 (S13E54). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun,
16 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 364 km/s at 12/2322Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8 pfu at 13/0615Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 106 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (14 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jun 170 Previsto 14 Jun-16 Jun 170/175/175 Media de 90 Días 13 Jun 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 006/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 004/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/005-010/012-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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