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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jun 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jun 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
17/0804Z from Region 3712 (S26W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Jun, 19 Jun, 20 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 543 km/s at 17/0513Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 17/1426Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
17/1700Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (19 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (20 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (18 Jun)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jun 180 Previsto 18 Jun-20 Jun 180/180/180 Media de 90 Días 17 Jun 176
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jun 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jun 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun 014/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jun a 20 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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