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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
19/0823Z from Region 3753 (N12W76). There are currently 18 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 363 km/s at 19/2045Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
19/1617Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1746Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (21 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (20 Jul, 21 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (22 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jul 202 Previsto 20 Jul-22 Jul 200/190/185 Media de 90 Días 19 Jul 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 013/016-018/020-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jul a 22 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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