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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Jul 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 200 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jul 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/1014Z from Region 3751 (S08E14). There are currently 18 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 396 km/s at 17/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
18/1603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
18/1623Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three
(21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one
and two (19 Jul, 20 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day three (21 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jul a 21 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Jul 209 Previsto 19 Jul-21 Jul 210/210/210 Media de 90 Días 18 Jul 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jul 007/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Jul 007/009 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul 008/008-013/016-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jul a 21 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 01/02/2026 | X1.0 |
| Último evento clase M | 01/02/2026 | M2.5 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
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