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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 05 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 218 Publicado el 2200Z a las 05 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 04-2100Z hasta 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/1340Z from Region 3767 (S09W92). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07
Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 04-2100Z a 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 667 km/s at 05/0949Z. Total IMF reached 21
nT at 05/0002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
05/0215Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 05/1945Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (06 Aug, 07 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (08 Aug). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 05 Aug 247 Previsto 06 Aug-08 Aug 244/235/240 Media de 90 Días 05 Aug 195
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 04 Aug 028/050 Estimado Afr/Ap 05 Aug 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 06 Aug a 08 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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