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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
01/1322Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 491 km/s at 01/0904Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 31/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
31/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 361 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (03 Sep, 04 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Sep 226 Previsto 02 Sep-04 Sep 230/240/245 Media de 90 Días 01 Sep 211
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Aug 019/027 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 012/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Sep a 04 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 13/02/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
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| Last 30 days | 131.5 +34.7 |