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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 220 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
07/1350Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Aug, 09
Aug, 10 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 591 km/s at 06/2149Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/1513Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
07/0823Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 114 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Aug), quiet to major storm levels
on day two (09 Aug) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (10
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (08 Aug, 09 Aug, 10 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 303 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 270/280/275 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 196
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 008/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 006/006-020/032-029/040
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 65% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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