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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 247 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
03/1602Z from Region 3813 (S22E44). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05
Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 585 km/s at 03/0032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
03/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
03/0557Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6 pfu at 03/1245Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 565 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (04 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep). Protons are likely to cross
threshold on day one (04 Sep) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
days two and three (05 Sep, 06 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Sep a 06 Sep
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Sep 242 Previsto 04 Sep-06 Sep 245/250/240 Media de 90 Días 03 Sep 212
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Sep 007/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Sep 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 010/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Sep a 06 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 05/02/2026 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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