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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Aug 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Aug 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar events of the period were two M1 events
observed at 11/0528Z from Region 3780 (S11W20) and at 11/2018Z from
Region 3777 (S10W60). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on
the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug, 13
Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 539 km/s at 11/2032Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 11/0917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (13 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (14
Aug). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Aug 282 Previsto 12 Aug-14 Aug 280/270/270 Media de 90 Días 11 Aug 200
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Aug 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 018/028 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 025/038-013/015-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Aug a 14 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 55% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 19/12/2025 | M1.0 |
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