Viendo archivo del miércoles, 11 septiembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 255 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1752Z from Region 3814 (N15W16). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 10/2120Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 11/1729Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
11/1959Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 192 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (12 Sep), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (14 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Sep 207 Previsto 12 Sep-14 Sep 200/200/200 Media de 90 Días 11 Sep 217
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 007/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 012/025-023/035-017/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Sep a 14 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 20% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 75% | 60% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (4%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 75.1 -3.1 |
| Last 30 days | 52.5 -75.3 |