Viendo archivo del martes, 10 septiembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 254 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/1547Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(11 Sep, 12 Sep, 13 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 489 km/s at 10/0254Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
09/2156Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 34 pfu at 09/2250Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 127 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Sep, 12
Sep) and quiet to major storm levels on day three (13 Sep). Protons have
a chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (11 Sep, 12 Sep) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Sep 205 Previsto 11 Sep-13 Sep 205/200/200 Media de 90 Días 10 Sep 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Sep 009/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Sep 014/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 018/020-012/020-023/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Sep a 13 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 65% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
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