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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 264 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/1457Z from Region 3831 (N12W09). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep,
23 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 485 km/s at 20/0519Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at
19/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
20/2055Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1240 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Sep a 23 Sep
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Sep 154 Previsto 21 Sep-23 Sep 155/150/150 Media de 90 Días 20 Sep 215
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 015/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Sep 005/005 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 009/010-007/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Sep a 23 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 02/02/2026 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 02/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 97 -27 |
| Last 30 days | 118.3 +3.5 |