Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 septiembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 263 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/1527Z from Region 3825 (S16W21). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 529 km/s at 19/0836Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 19/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 19/1056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1227 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (20 Sep, 22 Sep) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (21 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Sep 161 Previsto 20 Sep-22 Sep 160/155/150 Media de 90 Días 19 Sep 216
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 010/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Sep 015/021 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-009/010-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Sep a 22 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 30% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 135.1 +43.3 |
| Last 30 days | 107.1 +10.8 |