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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Sep 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 273 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Sep 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
29/1424Z from Region 3842 (S15E45). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 486 km/s at 29/2044Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 29/1451Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
29/1951Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 574 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Sep) and quiet levels on
days two and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Sep 197 Previsto 30 Sep-02 Oct 200/200/200 Media de 90 Días 29 Sep 214
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 009/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 45% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 05/02/2026 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| febrero 2026 | 139.3 +26.7 |
| Last 30 days | 124.9 +18 |