Viendo archivo del miércoles, 16 octubre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
16/0346Z from Region 3852 (S11W51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Oct,
18 Oct) and likely to be moderate on day three (19 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 502 km/s at 16/1623Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 16/0346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
15/2156Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 710 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (17 Oct,
18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 80% | 75% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 168 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 165/160/175 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 221
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 016/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 008/008-012/015-014/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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