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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 299 Publicado el 2200Z a las 25 Oct 2024

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 24-2100Z hasta 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 25/0733Z from Region 3873 (S10E63). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 24-2100Z a 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 25/0735Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 25/1943Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0345Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 139 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Oct), quiet levels on day two (27 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (28 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 26 Oct a 28 Oct
Clase M70%70%70%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       25 Oct 209
  Previsto   26 Oct-28 Oct 210/215/220
  Media de 90 Días        25 Oct 220

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 24 Oct  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  006/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  015/018-007/007-009/008

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 26 Oct a 28 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%20%25%
Tormenta Menor15%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%15%15%
Tormenta Menor30%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa55%30%30%

All times in UTC

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