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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Nov 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 327 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Nov 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
22/1546Z from Region 3905 (S10E66). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 438 km/s at 22/1010Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 22/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
22/2051Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 125 pfu at 22/0355Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 21/2130Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 180 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (23 Nov,
24 Nov, 25 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (23 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Nov 179 Previsto 23 Nov-25 Nov 180/180/185 Media de 90 Días 22 Nov 207
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Nov 005/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Nov 010/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Nov a 25 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 110 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 104.3 -5.3 |