Viendo archivo del jueves, 28 noviembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Nov 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 333 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Nov 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/0514Z from Region 3905 (S09W16). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 28/1713Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
28/0731Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
28/1711Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 124 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (29 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (30 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (01
Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov, 01 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Nov a 01 Dec
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Nov 214 Previsto 29 Nov-01 Dec 220/220/215 Media de 90 Días 28 Nov 207
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Nov 003/002 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Nov 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec 019/024-009/010-006/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Nov a 01 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 40% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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