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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Nov 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 306 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Nov 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
31/2120Z from Region 3878 (N16E23). There are currently 13 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Nov, 03
Nov, 04 Nov).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 621 km/s at 31/2226Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/0636Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
31/2108Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 15 pfu at 01/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (02 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Nov) and have a chance of
crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Nov, 04 Nov).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Protón | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Nov 256 Previsto 02 Nov-04 Nov 260/250/240 Media de 90 Días 01 Nov 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 Oct 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Nov 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov 006/008-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Nov a 04 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 01/02/2026 | X1.0 |
| Último evento clase M | 01/02/2026 | M1.5 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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