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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Dec 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 358 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Dec 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M8 event observed at
23/1112Z from Region 3932 (S17E27). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 22/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 22/2251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1632Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4 pfu at 23/0125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1540 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three
(26 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (24 Dec, 25 Dec, 26 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Dec a 26 Dec
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Dec 238 Previsto 24 Dec-26 Dec 230/230/230 Media de 90 Días 23 Dec 202
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Dec 015/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Dec 009/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 008/010-018/025-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Dec a 26 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 65% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
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| Last 30 days | 108.9 +1.7 |