Viendo archivo del viernes, 27 diciembre 2024
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Dec 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 362 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Dec 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
27/2035Z from Region 3938 (N19E25). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (28 Dec,
29 Dec) and expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on
day three (30 Dec).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 691 km/s at 27/0850Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
27/1704Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
27/1527Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 969 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Dec,
29 Dec, 30 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (28 Dec, 29 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (30 Dec).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Dec 259 Previsto 28 Dec-30 Dec 260/260/240 Media de 90 Días 27 Dec 206
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Dec 003/001 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Dec 004/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 007/008-007/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Dec a 30 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (4%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 75.1 -3.1 |
| Last 30 days | 52.5 -75.3 |