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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jan 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 23 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jan 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
23/0203Z from Region 3961 (S09W48). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 22/2259Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 23/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/1600Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1920 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 Jan), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (25 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (24 Jan, 25 Jan, 26 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jan a 26 Jan
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Jan 215 Previsto 24 Jan-26 Jan 215/215/210 Media de 90 Días 23 Jan 201
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jan 007/ NA Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Jan 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 011/015-021/030-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jan a 26 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 75% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 02/02/2026 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 03/02/2026 | M1.7 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 114 -10 |
| Last 30 days | 118.1 +6.2 |