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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Dec 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 364 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Dec 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
29/0718Z from Region 3936 (N12W42). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31
Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 419 km/s at 29/0755Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
29/0856Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1306Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 307 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 Dec), quiet to severe
storm levels on day two (31 Dec) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (01 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day three (01 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 75% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Dec 255 Previsto 30 Dec-01 Jan 255/240/210 Media de 90 Días 29 Dec 207
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 009/008-033/050-018/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Dec a 01 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 50% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 01% | 05% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 85% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
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