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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2024 Dec 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 365 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Dec 2024IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
30/0414Z from Region 3936 (N12W55). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01
Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 380 km/s at 29/2250Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 30/0323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
30/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 163 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to severe storm levels on day one (31 Dec), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (02 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (02 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 Dec a 02 Jan
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Dec 224 Previsto 31 Dec-02 Jan 225/225/215 Media de 90 Días 30 Dec 207
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Dec 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 028/050-018/020-007/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 Dec a 02 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 85% | 65% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
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