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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Feb 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 47 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Feb 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
16/1838Z from Region 3998 (S14E66). There are currently 12 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (17 Feb, 18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 681 km/s at 15/2231Z. Total IMF
reached 6 nT at 16/0635Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 16/0536Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3933 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Feb 185 Previsto 17 Feb-19 Feb 185/185/180 Media de 90 Días 16 Feb 192
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 020/025 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 016/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 011/012-014/016-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 02/02/2026 | X1.6 |
| Último evento clase M | 02/02/2026 | M4.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 97 -27 |
| Last 30 days | 118.3 +3.5 |