Viendo archivo del sábado, 15 febrero 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Feb 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 46 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Feb 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/1936Z. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 700 km/s at 15/1744Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 15/0212Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4740 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (16 Feb), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (17 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day
three (18 Feb).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Feb 184 Previsto 16 Feb-18 Feb 190/190/185 Media de 90 Días 15 Feb 192
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 020/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 020/029 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 017/022-010/012-014/016
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 30% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 20/12/2025 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 120.8 +29 |
| Last 30 days | 108.7 +19.4 |