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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Mar 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 61 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Mar 2025

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 01/2301Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Mar, 04 Mar, 05 Mar).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 01/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2016Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 02/0541Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1463 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (03 Mar) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (04 Mar, 05 Mar).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Mar a 05 Mar
Clase M30%30%30%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Mar 140
  Previsto   03 Mar-05 Mar 140/140/140
  Media de 90 Días        02 Mar 190

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Mar  011/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Mar  006/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  008/008-014/018-019/025

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Mar a 05 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%35%35%
Tormenta Menor05%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%10%10%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%10%10%
Tormenta Menor25%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%65%65%

All times in UTC

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