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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Apr 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 104 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Apr 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (15 Apr,
16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class
flare on day three (17 Apr).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 14/0716Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 14/0243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1464 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (16 Apr) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (17 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (15 Apr, 16 Apr).
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 75% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Apr 152 Previsto 15 Apr-17 Apr 165/165/160 Media de 90 Días 14 Apr 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 014/ NA Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 013/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 009/012-025/038-019/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Apr a 17 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 25% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 75% | 65% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 139.6 +47.8 |
| Last 30 days | 106.8 +8.5 |