Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 junio 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (16 Jun, 17 Jun)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(18 Jun).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 15/0312Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 15/2002Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
15/1051Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 669 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Jun), quiet to
active levels on day two (17 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (18 Jun). Protons are likely to cross threshold on day one (16
Jun), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (17 Jun) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day three (18 Jun).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 65% | 45% | 35% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 161 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 150/145/140 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 149
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 021/ 024 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 012/014 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 013/016-014/015-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 03/06/2026 | X1.0 |
| Último evento clase M | 06/06/2026 | M1.8 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 11/06/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (2%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| mayo 2026 | 101.4 +22.1 |
| junio 2026 | 104.7 +3.3 |
| Last 30 days | 108.3 +10.8 |
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