Viendo archivo del jueves, 17 julio 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Jul 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 198 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Jul 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 789 km/s at 17/1436Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 16/2130Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 17/1016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 6593 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (18 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (18 Jul,
19 Jul, 20 Jul).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Jul a 20 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Jul 156 Previsto 18 Jul-20 Jul 158/155/150 Media de 90 Días 17 Jul 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Jul 014/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Jul 013/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 011/015-010/010-009/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Jul a 20 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 24/04/2026 | X2.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 22/05/2026 | M2.3 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 16/05/2026 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (2%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| abril 2026 | 79.3 -6.6 |
| mayo 2026 | 91.5 +12.2 |
| Last 30 days | 96.4 +4.5 |
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