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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Aug 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 221 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Aug 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Aug, 11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 712 km/s at 09/0645Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 08/2335Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 09/1154Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 450 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (10 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (11 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (12 Aug).
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| Clase M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Aug 140 Previsto 10 Aug-12 Aug 140/140/135 Media de 90 Días 09 Aug 135
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Aug 018/050 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Aug 038/055 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 017/018-013/018-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Aug a 12 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 70% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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