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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(02 Oct, 03 Oct, 04 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 880 km/s at 01/1700Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 30/2146Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 01/0159Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 2756 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (02 Oct, 03 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (04 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 184 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 185/185/185 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 043/075 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 032/043 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 021/028-015/018-013/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 04/02/2026 | M1.8 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| febrero 2026 | 133 +9 |
| Last 30 days | 121.6 +13.3 |