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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 275 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 861 km/s at 02/1234Z. Total IMF
reached 10 nT at 02/0433Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 02/0352Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3601 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (03 Oct) and
unsettled to active levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Oct 167 Previsto 03 Oct-05 Oct 185/180/175 Media de 90 Días 02 Oct 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 025/050 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Oct 036/051 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 018/025-015/018-014/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Oct a 05 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.3 |
| Último evento clase M | 13/02/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 05/02/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| enero 2026 | 112.6 -11.4 |
| febrero 2026 | 121.7 +9.1 |
| Last 30 days | 131.5 +34.7 |