Viendo archivo del miércoles, 15 octubre 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 590 km/s at 15/0558Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 14/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2317Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2846 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (16 Oct), unsettled
to minor storm levels on day two (17 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (18 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Oct 162 Previsto 16 Oct-18 Oct 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 15 Oct 153
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct 020/028-019/025-007/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Oct a 18 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 25% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 75% | 65% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 12/12/2025 | M1.1 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 12/12/2025 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| noviembre 2025 | 91.8 -22.8 |
| diciembre 2025 | 125.7 +33.9 |
| Last 30 days | 109.3 +18.1 |