Viendo archivo del jueves, 16 octubre 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 289 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (17 Oct,
18 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (19 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 15/2235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
15/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3769 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and
two (17 Oct, 18 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Oct 161 Previsto 17 Oct-19 Oct 162/165/155 Media de 90 Días 16 Oct 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Oct 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 014/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 019/025-013/016-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Oct a 19 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 65% | 50% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (5%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 75 -3.2 |
| Last 30 days | 59.2 -65.5 |