Viendo archivo del viernes, 17 octubre 2025
Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2025 Oct 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 290 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Oct 2025IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (18 Oct,
19 Oct) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day
three (20 Oct).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 16/2119Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 17/1025Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
17/0935Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3331 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (18 Oct, 19 Oct) and
unsettled to active levels on day three (20 Oct). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two
(18 Oct, 19 Oct).
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 40% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 Oct 164 Previsto 18 Oct-20 Oct 165/155/160 Media de 90 Días 17 Oct 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 Oct 003/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 Oct 013/016 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 013/016-012/012-012/014
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Oct a 20 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 45% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 04/02/2026 | X4.21 |
| Último evento clase M | 25/02/2026 | M2.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/03/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (4%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| febrero 2026 | 78.2 -34.3 |
| marzo 2026 | 75.1 -3.1 |
| Last 30 days | 54.5 -72.1 |