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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2026 Jan 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 19 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Jan 2026IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (20 Jan) and likely to be
moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days two and three
(21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2211Z according to ACE
and DSCOVR, but speeds are likely much higher. Total IMF reached 86 nT
at 19/1859Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -49 nT at
19/2035Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 36976 pfu at 19/1915Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7877 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at minor storm to severe storm levels on day one (20 Jan), quiet
to minor storm levels on day two (21 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels
on day three (22 Jan). Protons are remained above threshold on day one
to three (20-22 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 99% | 95% | 65% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Jan 173 Previsto 20 Jan-22 Jan 175/180/180 Media de 90 Días 19 Jan 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Jan 012/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 040/061 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 058/086-017/020-009/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Jan a 22 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 35% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 79% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 18/01/2026 | X1.9 |
| Último evento clase M | 21/01/2026 | M3.4 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 28/01/2026 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 119.3 -4.7 |
| Last 30 days | 120.3 +3.4 |