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Informe actividad solar
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2026 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 20 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jan 2026IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at major storm to severe storm levels for the past 24
hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 1178 km/s at 19/2133Z. Total
IMF reached 91 nT at 19/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz
reached -58 nT at 19/2104Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5680 pfu at 19/2110Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 720 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (21 Jan), unsettled
to active levels on day two (22 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (23 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one
(21 Jan), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (22 Jan) and
have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (23 Jan).
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 99% | 45% | 15% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jan 178 Previsto 21 Jan-23 Jan 180/180/175 Media de 90 Días 20 Jan 147
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jan 064/073 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jan 068/125 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 025/042-016/018-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jan a 23 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 50% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 90% | 50% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 30/03/2026 | X1.5 |
| Último evento clase M | 09/04/2026 | M1.0 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 03/04/2026 | Kp7- (G3) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Last 365 days | 3 días |
| 2026 | 3 días (3%) |
| Último día sin manchas | 24/02/2026 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| marzo 2026 | 85.9 +7.7 |
| abril 2026 | 92 +6.1 |
| Last 30 days | 93.7 +33.5 |
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