Affichage des archives de vendredi, 27 décembre 2024

Bulletin quotidien sur l'activité solaire et géomagnétique du SIDC

Publié: 2024 Dec 27 1237 UTC

Prévisions SIDC

Éruptions solaires

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Géomagnétisme

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Moniteur de Flux de Proton

Quiet

	Flux de 10 cm	Ap
27 Dec 2024	260	007
28 Dec 2024	260	007
29 Dec 2024	260	007

Régions solaires actives et éruptions solaires

Solar flaring activity was low to moderate over the past 24 hours, with several C-class flares observed, including three C9 flares. A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the solar disk during this period. The largest flare was a C9.6 flare (SIDC Flare 3090), which peaked on December 26 at 18:45 UTC. This flare was produced by a newly identified sunspot, SIDC Sunspot Group 352, which also produced a C6.7 flare peaking on December 27 at 05:42 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 350 (NOAA Active Region 3938), currently located at N21E40, remains the most complex and active region on the disk, exhibiting a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. This region produced multiple C-class flares, including a C9.0 flare that peaked on December 27 at 00:50 UTC. SIDC Sunspot Group 341 (NOAA Active Region 3932), now positioned at S17W08, also remains complex with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. This region produced the second-largest flare, a C9.5 flare peaking on December 27 at 08:05 UTC, along with additional C-class flares. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with a high likelihood of C-class flares, a possibility of M-class flares, and a small chance of X-class flares.

Éjection de masse coronale

Over the past 24 hours, multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery, including two partial halo CMEs directed toward the southeast. The first CME was observed on December 27, 2024, at 05:24 UTC, with a projected speed estimated by CACTus at an average of 517 km/s (minimum 351 km/s, maximum 769 km/s). The second CME was observed earlier on December 27, 2024, at 04:28 UTC, with a projected speed estimated by CACTus at an average of 991 km/s (minimum 201 km/s, maximum 1782 km/s). The source regions for both CMEs remain unclear. No significant flares or dimming events have been observed on the visible solar disk that could be conclusively linked to these CMEs. At this point, it is presumed that the CMEs may have originated from the far side of the Sun. Further analysis is required to determine their trajectories, and updates will be provided as additional data becomes available.

Trous coronaux

SIDC Coronal Hole 83, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity that crossed the central meridian on December 19, has now rotated over the western limb, while the SIDC Coronal Hole 84, a mid- latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere with positive polarity, first crossed the central meridian on December 23 and is now also positioned on the western side of the Sun.

Vent solaire

The solar wind at Earth remains in a slow-speed regime, with values ranging between 326 km/s and 400 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field is stable below 5 nT, with its southward component fluctuating between -3.7 nT and 3.9 nT. This slow-speed solar wind is expected to persist. However, due to heightened solar activity, including multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections from magnetically complex sunspot groups, the possibility of a glancing blow causing temporary disturbances in solar wind conditions cannot be ruled out.

Géomagnétisme

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were very quiet globally (NOAA Kp: 0 to 1) and quiet locally over Belgium (K-Bel: 0 to 2). However, given the heightened solar activity, including multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections originating from magnetically complex sunspot groups, the possibility of a glancing blow or other solar wind structures temporarily disturbing the conditions cannot be excluded. This may result in short periods of active conditions or even minor geomagnetic storms.

Niveaux de flux de protons

The greater-than-10 MeV GOES proton flux continues its gradual decrease and has now reached background levels. However, a small chance of a proton event crossing the threshold within the next 24 hours cannot be fully ruled out, given the heightened solar activity with multiple intense flares and coronal mass ejections originating from magnetically complex sunspot groups.

Flux d'électrons sur l'orbite géostationnaire

The greater-than-2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours, while it briefly reached the threshold level in GOES 16. It is expected to remain below the threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is currently at normal levels and is anticipated to stay at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Estimation du nombre international de taches solaires (ISN) pour aujourd'hui : 257, sur la base de 07 stations.

Indices solaires pour 26 Dec 2024

Nombre de Wolf, observé par Catania	///
Flux solaire à 10 cm	256
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Ap estimé	001
Nombre international de taches solaires estimé	267 - Basé sur 09 stations

Résumé des événements marquants

Données fournies par le Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Traité par SpaceWeatherLive

Toutes les heures sont indiquées en UTC

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