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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Emesso: 2023 May 06 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Brillamenti solari

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Protoni solari

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 May 2023	162	034
07 May 2023	162	017
08 May 2023	162	017

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels over the past 24 hours with an M-class flare and several C-class flares. The M1.2 flare occurred in NOAA Active Region 3296 yesterday on May 05, peaking at 15:31 UTC. This region also produced several C-class flares, and it is currently located around North-15, and East-16. The other largest flare was a C9.5-class flare and was produced yesterday on May 05, peaking at 22:27 UTC, by NOAA Active Regions 3288 turning over the West limb. The region NOAA Active Regions 3297 was also active and produced a C-class flare. The flaring activity is expected to remain moderate with possible M-class flare and a small chance of X-class flare.

Many coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over the past 24 hours. The two recent flares were each associated with a CME, the C9.5-class flare (from NOAA Active Region 3297 on May 05, peaking at 07:06 UTC) and the M2.1-class flare (from NOAA Active Region 3296 on May 05, peaking at 08:01 UTC). Those two CMEs show an Earth directed component and are expected to arrive on May 07.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at the background levels over the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain at the background levels over the next day, with a very small chance that a particle event occurs in association with an X-class flare or a coronal mass ejection. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux returned below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain at that level over the next day. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to return at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

A solar wind shock was observed today on May 06 at 00:25 UTC. The solar wind speed jumped from 331 km/s to 375 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field jumped from 4 nT to 8 nT, then rapidly increased to reach values up to 16 nT. The southward interplanetary magnetic field jumped from -2 nT to -5 nT, then rapidly reach close to -16 nT. Finally, the solar wind density also jumped from 4.2 to 15.6 [cm-3]. The origin of this solar wind shock is under analysis, a possible candidate could be the coronal mass ejection observed on May 04 associated to the M3.9-class flare peaking at 08:44 UTC that was North-East directed and was determined to be a near miss. However, further investigated would be needed. Currently, the solar wind regime remains enhanced with the wind speed reaching 561 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuating between 10 nT and 17 nT, and the southward interplanetary magnetic field component reaching values close to -11 nT. The solar wind condition is expected to remain elevated due to the ongoing disturbance coupled with the soon arrival of the influence from the narrow equatorial-north coronal hole (positive magnetic polarity which crossed the central meridian on May 04).

This solar wind shock was immediately followed by a geomagnetic storm (Kp- Potsdam = 6, Kp-NOAA = 5-, and K-Bel=5). The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain active with possible short periods of storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 05 May 2023

Wolf number Catania	127
10cm solar flux	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	004
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	112 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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