查看星期一, 4 8月 2014歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2014 Aug 04 1209 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
04 Aug 2014	152	013
05 Aug 2014	155	007
06 Aug 2014	155	007

公告

Flaring is currently at low C-class level. The largest flare since our last bulletin was reported to occur this morning in NOAA AR 2126 (CAT 27) with peak time 00:53 UT. This region is currently turning over the west limb, however we expect more C-flares with a chance for a low M-class flare, especially from NOAA regions 2130, 2132 and 2134. A small filament erupted in the western hemisphere, just south of the equator on August 3 around 18:09 UT. An associated narrow CME was observed in LASCO at 19:24 UT, but is not earth-directed. Two small disturbances were observed in the solar wind. The first one started on August 3 around 15:00 UT, and is probably related to the arrival of the CME associated with the M1.5 flare on August 1. The second disturbance started today around 06:00 UT and is likely related to a high speed wind stream originating from the coronal hole that passed the central meridian on August 1. In both cases the southward component of the magnetic field did not turn strongly negative and the solar wind speed remained low, resulting in only unsettled geomagnetic conditions (K=3). Active geomagnetic conditions (K=4) are possible today. We expect a return to quiet conditions after that.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：104，基於16個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 03 Aug 2014

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	152
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
估計地磁Ap指數	007
估計國際太陽黑子數	105 - 基於27個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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